Mike Pelfini — 05 October 2026

Leading through uncertainty requires new skills, mindsets, and relationships. Learn how senior leaders can adapt by forgoing quick fixes in complex situations, and giving autonomy to teams.  

Leading through uncertainty requires new skills and new paradigms. In the age of AI and technological disruption, traditional leadership, based on technical skills and industrial-age “command and control”, must give way to more collaborative, human-centered leadership. Here are two examples:

1. A 2024 McKinsey report found that businesses “focused on human capital development in addition to financial performance” were 1.5 times more likely to remain high performers, and recovered from disruptions two times faster than their competitors. And
2.   A 2026 McKinsey report found that companies with “strong cultural health” have 2.5 times higher return on invested capital and are 2.4 times less likely to face financial distress than peers with less cultural health.

The evidence also suggests that organizations still have lessons to learn.

1.   A 2026 report published in Forbes found that just 8% of senior leaders scored well in terms of leading change, while middle managers topped the survey with 30% scoring well at leading change.
2.   Deloitte’s 2026 Human Capital Report found that 59% of C-suite leaders are taking a “tech-focused approach” to change that makes them 1.6 times more likely NOT to realize returns on AI investments compared with those taking a human centered approach.

This article examines how leaders can prepare themselves and their teams for change and uncertainty.

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Mindset Changes for Leaders

In a 2025 article published by the Harvard Business School, authors Rebecca Zucker and Darin Rowell offer several strategies for leading through uncertainty. Although the article is aimed at educators, its lessons apply equally well to leaders from all industries facing times of disruption. Helpful strategies include:

1.   Embrace uncertainty. Leaders are often conditioned to arrive at a “single, definitive, correct answer” to every challenge. But that mindset can be a barrier to learning, growth, innovation, and ultimately to future performance.

Instead of looking for a “quick fix”, leading through uncertainty requires us to accept discomfort as a normal part of learning. Leaders who develop a growth mindset learn to focus on “becoming,” not just on “being.” They view challenges as opportunities to become better leaders. No one–particularly in an age of disruption–starts with all the answers.

2.   Avoid oversimplification. The impulse to get rid of uncertainty can cause leaders to oversimplify problems. They may force problems into familiar categories or rely too heavily on past experience. These strategies can give the leader a feeling of greater control, but at the cost of missing connections and nuances.

Many high achievers have a “bias for action” and become frustrated when solutions don’t materialize quickly. Resisting the temptation to rush to a solution. Instead, making time for a “leadership pause” is an excellent way to combat the urge to jump into action without fully understanding the problem.

3.   Distinguish between complicated and complex. These two words describe different concepts, according to the authors. Complicated problems may be time consuming, involve many steps, or be highly technical. But they have knowable, “correct” solutions that can be tackled with the right expertise. Complex problems may be novel and dynamic – with shifting demands and unforeseen consequences. 

Complicated problems can be tackled with existing tools. Complex problems call for new tools that may not even exist yet. Zucker and Rowell offer two practical approaches that can help.

The first is utilizing “humble leadership.” Humble leaders recognize that they don’t always have the answers. They actively seek out ideas, encourage different viewpoints, and recognize the efforts of others.

Equally important is developing a learning culture that systematically promotes learning and development for all, especially senior leaders. This has been described as a shift from a “know it all” culture to a “learn it all” culture. It includes leaders who act as role models. Learning can be tailored to individual styles and requires opportunities to practice in a safe environment. Learning from mistakes becomes the rule of thumb for everyone.

Building Teams to Share the Journey

To meet the challenge of leading through uncertainty, organizations need to build new mindsets and stronger relationships. “Organizations must now elevate human connection, resilience, adaptability, and imagination, which enable work under uncertainty,” writes Annie Peshkam in a 2026 Harvard Business Review article. 

Rather than cultivating competence, which focuses on technical skills, the author argues that leaders and teams need to develop capacity, which the author defines as the ability to tolerate uncertainty and ambiguity.

For leaders, this change starts with what we have described as “leading from within,” which is based on self-awareness and connection. 

Here are a few strategies for leading through uncertainty by building capacity:

1. Reflective pause. The reflective pause is the team version of the leadership pause referenced earlier. The same urge to arrive at a “quick fix” that leaders can experience applies equally to the team. Just like their leaders, teams can feel discomfort in the face of uncertainty and try to soothe that feeling by acting too quickly.

The leader’s role becomes helping the team “stay with” or tolerate discomfort until it’s ready to think more deeply. The leader should take heed to notice where tension lies, what hasn’t been said or who hasn’t spoken, and express those observations to the group. Ask the team to pause and reflect before offering solutions and remind them that real progress can’t be rushed. 

2.   Emotional resilience. Leaders help their teams when they avoid the “reflex to soothe” and instead express frankly the difficulties that lie ahead. When leaders aren’t candid about challenges, and instead adopt an “everything is OK” mindset (when everyone knows something is wrong) can cause team members to feel like their concerns haven’t been heard. 

Leaders need to be candid but compassionate when facing challenges. They must trust team members to face challenges and discover first-hand their own capacity to respond. This is how leaders help their teams build emotional resilience. 

3.   Sharing the burden. Many leaders believe that “their value is in absorbing pressure” so others can keep working, according to Peshkam. But building the team’s capacity to hold the discomfort that can accompany uncertainty requires leaders to (a) involve their teams by discussing challenges and (b) giving others the encouragement to contribute to solutions.

Building autonomy on the part of teams is one of the ways leaders can share the burden. It begins with having enough trust to loosen control, delegate responsibilities, and encourage independent thinking. When leaders give their teams the gift of authentic trust, the result is a motivated and high-performing group.

4.   Healthy conflict. According to Peshkam, “High performers often learn to ‘manage conflict’ so the work can keep moving.” But just as often that means avoiding or suppressing conflict, which comes at the cost of lost perspectives and unexamined assumptions.

The alternative is to encourage healthy conflict. Research has shown that teams who are encouraged to disagree and debate respectfully are more creative and make better decisions. The leader’s role is to establish ground rules, keep the team focused on substantive issues, and model the behavior they want to see.

Leading through uncertainty requires new skills, mindsets, and relationships. If you would like to learn more about leading teams through change, disruption, and uncertainty, please contact us.

About ForeMeta

ForeMeta prepares leaders for breakthrough transformation. Founded by leadership coach and Vistage Chair Dr. Mike Pelfini, ForeMeta focuses on the people who make the decisions—helping CEOs and leaders of small to mid-sized companies from all sectors to deepen their self-leadership, clarify their why, and expand their capacity to lead. 

Through either thoughtfully facilitated peer groups or 1:1 executive coaching, ForeMeta helps leaders create new possibilities and more fulfilling results for themselves, their organizations, and their communities.

©Mike Pelfini 2026, all rights reserved.